Unboxing the Packaging Boom: Trends and Surprises in Paper Shipping Materials

E-Commerce Boom Drives a Cardboard Tsunami

The rise of online shopping has unleashed an unprecedented demand for shipping materials. In 2022, global parcel shipments reached 161 billion packages, up from 159 billion in 2021. The United States alone saw e-commerce sales top $1.16 trillion in 2023, with each of those orders needing a box, mailer, or wrapper. It’s no surprise, then, that the e-commerce packaging market (boxes, mailers, packing materials) was valued around $77 billion in 2024 and is projected to soar to $125 billion by 2029 – an annual growth rate several times higher than traditional retail packaging. This “cardboard boom” is evident in the U.S., where demand for corrugated and paperboard boxes hit $47 billion in 2024. Major packaging producers have raced to keep up – for instance, International Paper even invested in expanding corrugated box plants in France by up to 60% to meet surging e-commerce needs. Every item ordered online typically comes with extra packaging (a shipping box or envelope, cushioning, tape) on top of its product container, fueling a tsunami of cardboard entering the supply chain.

However, this boom has a flip side. The deluge of parcels strained supply lines so much that cardboard earned a new nickname among shippers: “beige gold.” During the pandemic surge, box manufacturers struggled with shortages, and prices spiked – UK suppliers paid up to £200 ($250) more per ton for paper packaging in early 2022 than a year prior. Such spikes hint at packaging’s often overlooked role as the lifeblood of e-commerce – when packaging materials run short, deliveries can grind to a haltdhl.com. In short, the growth of online shopping has made the once-humble cardboard box a critical commodity in the global economy.

Boom-and-Bust in the Cardboard Industry

Given the e-commerce frenzy, one might expect packaging producers to thrive without hiccups. Yet the paper packaging industry has seen surprising volatility in recent years. After a pandemic-era peak, demand took a downturn in 2022–2023 before rebounding. In fact, U.S. paper and paperboard manufacturing capacity actually fell by 1.6% in 2023, continuing an annual decline trend. Over 1.7 million tons of papermaking capacity was permanently removed in 2023 as the industry faced demand weakness from customer destocking and economic headwinds. In plainer terms, suppliers had geared up for a pandemic boom that didn’t fully last – consumers and retailers found themselves with overstocked shelves and warehouses once the initial surge cooled. This led to a hangover in cardboard demand: if fewer products are being produced and shipped post-2021, less packaging is needed, causing mills to scale back.

Industry insiders note the downturn isn’t purely due to e-commerce trends. “The story isn’t a simple one,” explains a packaging executive, pointing to other factors like the substitution of other packaging types and lighter designs for retail packaging. Many companies have been “lightweighting” their packaging – using thinner, stronger material and optimizing box sizes – which means they can pack the same items with less paper. This efficiency, while good for sustainability and costs, translates to lower tonnage being produced. By early 2024, though, the slump showed signs of ending. Major containerboard producers reported a V-shaped rebound: Packaging Corp of America noted an 11% jump in shipments in Q2 2024 after the 2023 slowdown, and Europe’s Smurfit Kappa said the worst of the slump was over by Q1 2024, with volumes ticking up again. The industry is also consolidating to weather ups and downs – for example, Smurfit Kappa agreed to merge with U.S. rival WestRock in a multi-billion deal, aiming to create a more resilient global packaging giant.

The takeaway: even in a time of record online orders, the paper packaging sector isn’t a straight growth story. It’s a cyclical industry adapting to both economic swings and smarter packaging practices that squeeze more mileage out of each ton of paper. This dynamic might be a surprise: packaging demand is a barometer of broader economic activity, rising and falling with consumer goods output – and recent years have been a rollercoaster.

Shipping Air: The Empty Space Epidemic

One shockingly under-reported fact about shipping packages is how much of what we ship is actually nothing at all. Studies have found that a significant chunk of each box or container is just empty air. According to DHL logistics research, about 24% of the average package’s volume is empty space. In other words, roughly a quarter of every shipping box is wasted void, filled with air or extra padding. In extreme cases (small items in big boxes), the inefficiency is even worse – one analysis found certain e-commerce shipments were up to 40–60% empty space on average. This “Empty Space Economy” costs businesses billions in wasted packaging and shipping, and it means we’re literally shipping air in our trucks and cargo containers. One report by DS Smith and Forbes highlighted that even shipping containers are about 24% empty on average – representing wasted freight capacity and needless carbon emissions to transport nothing.

Why so much emptiness? One culprit is the use of standard box sizes that rarely match the product perfectly – leading to lots of filler (bubble wrap, air pillows, Styrofoam peanuts) to keep items from rattling around. Think of ordering a small item and receiving it in a shoebox-sized carton stuffed with padding. All that empty space adds up: globally, nearly half of shipping volume in some logistics networks is taken up by packaging itself rather than products. This inefficiency has massive implications. It means fewer packages fit per truck, more trips are needed, and extra fuel is burned – not to mention the wasted paper and plastic materials.

The good news is that companies are attacking this problem with new technology. AI and machine learning are being deployed to optimize packaging choices. For example, DHL’s OptiCarton algorithm determines the ideal box dimensions and even suggests splitting orders into multiple smaller packages if it reduces wasted space and cost. Early results showed clients could save up to 35% on shipping costs by eliminating extra space and materials. Amazon, the world’s largest e-commerce player, has similarly introduced an AI-powered “Package Decision Engine.” This system analyzes each product and picks the smallest sufficient packaging – deciding whether an item can ship in a padded mailer, a compact box, or even in its original manufacturer packaging. Through such AI optimizations, Amazon managed to cut the weight of packaging per shipment by about 43% in North America and Europe. The retail giant is also rolling out automated machines that create custom-sized boxes and paper mailers on demand in its warehouses. By mid-2025, about 70 of these systems were live across Europe, each producing snug packages that eliminate unnecessary bulk. The impact is enormous: Amazon estimates its smart packaging initiatives now avoid using over 500,000 tons of packaging material each year, and since 2015 it has eliminated more than 2 million tons of packaging worldwide. For perspective, that’s the weight of over 7,000 fully loaded Boeing 737s kept out of landfills. The bottom line is that cutting out empty space isn’t just eco-friendly – it directly saves money on shipping and improves logistics, a true win-win. Expect to see “right-sizing” packages become the norm as retailers compete to ship smarter (and leaner).

The Push for Paper: Sustainability Trends

Another major trend reshaping the packaging landscape is the race toward sustainability. As awareness grows about plastic pollution – from oceans choked with plastic waste to microplastics in our food – companies and regulators are seeking greener packaging solutions. This has led to what some call the “paperization” era: a shift where paper-based packaging is replacing plastics in applications long dominated by plastic. From shopping bags to drinking straws, and even snack wrappers and beverage packs, paper and cardboard are being tried as alternatives to plastic films and containers. For example, Nestlé recently switched its entire global Smarties candy line to recyclable paper packaging, becoming the first major candy brand to go all-in on paper packs. Mars, Inc. has trialed paper wrappers for Mars bars in the UK, aiming to curb single-use plastic wrappers. Fast-food giants and supermarkets are phasing out plastic clamshells and bags in favor of fiber-based packaging. This surge in paper-based solutions is driven by the appeal of paper’s origins – as the Sustainable Packaging Coalition notes, “trees are a renewable resource, unlike fossil fuels,” and decades of responsible forestry and recycling have built a robust system for paper.

Consumer preferences back this shift strongly. Surveys find that people see paper as the eco-friendly choice: 67% of consumers say they prefer paper packaging because it’s compostable/biodegradable, and nearly half believe paper/cardboard is “best for the environment” overall. In e-commerce specifically, a 2025 consumer trend report found 52% of shoppers prefer their online purchases delivered in paper packaging rather than plastic mailers. And an overwhelming 68% want orders shipped in properly sized boxes – no unnecessary extra packaging. Shoppers are even willing to reward or punish companies based on packaging choices: about 41% say they’d pay more for sustainably packaged products, and over a third might avoid retailers not cutting down on non-recyclable packaging. In short, sustainable packaging isn’t just a nice-to-have – it’s becoming a key expectation and can influence brand loyalty.

Governments are amplifying these preferences with new rules. Europe is leading the charge with sweeping regulations: by 2030, all packaging in the EU must be recyclable or reusable, and certain single-use plastics will be banned outright. These policies virtually mandate a transition to materials like paper, which are easier to recycle at scale. Already, paper and cardboard boast the highest recycling rates of any packaging material – over 83% of paper packaging in Europe is recovered for recycling. In the U.S., around 71–76% of corrugated cardboard gets recycled, far above the sub-30% recycling rates for plastic packaging (which is often not recycled at all in practice). This gives paper a major edge in a world focused on circular economy principles. Companies are responding by boosting recycled content in boxes and sourcing from certified sustainable forests. For example, many large packaging firms now operate closed-loop programs: they’ll sell you new boxes and also help take back and recycle the old ones. The circular nature of fiber-based packaging – from tree, to box, to recycling bin, and back to a new box – makes it a linchpin of sustainable logistics.

Even the world’s largest online retailer is on board. Amazon reports it has phased out 100% of plastic delivery packaging in Europe, switching to paper-based mailers and fillers, and in North America it eliminated 95% of plastic air pillows, replacing them with recycled paper cushion. Globally, Amazon claims to have removed over 80,000 metric tons of single-use plastics from its packaging since 2020. Efforts like these show how swiftly the packaging mix can change when sustainability becomes a priority. Fiber-based packaging is not a silver bullet – it still requires trees, water, and energy, and can be bulkier than plastics – but it offers a renewable and recyclable path that aligns with climate goals. As one industry report put it, “paper is rising to take on packaging applications that have long been the sole domain of plastics”. We are witnessing a pivotal shift: from disposable plastics to renewable paper, largely driven by a mix of consumer demand, corporate commitments, and environmental urgency.

Looking Ahead: Leaner, Greener, and Smarter Packaging

The packaging and shipping industry is undergoing a quiet revolution, and with it comes a story full of paradoxes and progress. On one hand, more boxes than ever are crisscrossing the globe, fueled by our click-happy shopping habits. On the other, the industry behind those boxes is consolidating and innovating, not simply growing. After a wild surge and a sobering correction, packaging producers are learning to balance boom-and-bust economics with a push for efficiency. They’re finding new ways to do more with less – less paper, less air, less waste.

 

Going forward, expect packaging to become lighter, smarter, and more eco-friendly by design. The drive to eliminate empty space in shipments will intensify, as cost-cutting goes hand in hand with carbon-cutting. Advanced tech like AI is turning packaging optimization into a science, ensuring every item is snug and secure without excess. At the same time, the material makeup of packages is shifting toward sustainability at an unprecedented pace. Paper-based packaging is emerging as a big winner of this transition, often touted as “renewable, recyclable, and biodegradable” – three magic words for the future of logistics. With recycling rates already high and improving, paper packaging forms the backbone of a circular supply chain where nearly every box can be reborn as a new one.

Yet, challenges remain on the horizon. The industry must navigate economic cycles (as the 2023 slump reminded us) and continue investing in innovation to meet both consumer expectations and regulatory mandates. Packaging waste still makes up a hefty chunk – almost one-third of all municipal solid waste in the U.S. comes from packaging – so the pressure is on to reduce and redesign. We may also see reusable packaging systems rise, especially in B2B commerce and closed-loop delivery models, to cut down on single-use materials.

All told, the story of packaging in 2025 is more dynamic than ever: it’s not just about more boxes, but smarter ones. From the boardroom to the warehouse, companies are rethinking how they pack and ship in order to save money, satisfy consumers, and save the planet (all at once). And that is a story that’s only beginning to unfold – one package at a time, delivered greener and leaner to your doorstep.

Sources: The above insights are backed by data and reports from industry analysts, packaging organizations, and recent market studies, including the St. Louis Fed’s FRED Blog, DHL’s logistics research, Two Sides North America’s consumer survey, Economy Insights 2025 report on e-commerce packaging, and corporate sustainability disclosures, among others. These sources highlight the evolving trends and statistics in the packaging and shipping sector, painting a comprehensive picture of an industry in transformation.