Packaging Boom and Shipping Shifts: Untold Trends in the Industry

The packaging sector is a trillion-dollar global industry that underpins manufacturing and retail, protecting goods in transit and on shelves. It includes materials from paper and cardboard to plastic, metal, and glass, and it’s intimately tied to the shipping and logistics of products. Recent data reveals a story of booming demand followed by a post-pandemic correction – a narrative of growth, transformation, and emerging challenges that isn’t widely told in mainstream discussions. Below, we dive into the statistics behind this story, focusing on paper packaging trends in the US and Europe (with global context), to uncover valuable insights for 2025 and beyond.

A Trillion-Dollar Industry Driven by Paper Packaging and E-commerce

The global packaging market was valued around $1.08 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach roughly $1.45 trillion by 2032 (about 3.9% CAGR). Asia-Pacific leads this market with ~38% share, while North America (led by the U.S.) is the second-largest region. The United States alone accounts for about 18–20% of the world’s packaging market (~$220 billion in 2024) and continues to grow ~4% annually. This growth is fueled by high consumer demand and advanced manufacturing – and notably by the rise of e-commerce. In fact, U.S. online retail sales exceeded $1.03 trillion in 2023, a major driver of demand for shipping materials and containers.

Paper-based packaging (paperboard, cardboard, etc.) remains the largest material category in the industry. In 2024, paper and paperboard products represented the biggest share of packaging by volume globally. For example, corrugated cardboard boxes – those ubiquitous brown shipping boxes – form the backbone of e-commerce logistics. In the U.S., corrugated and paperboard packaging is the single largest segment, worth about $47 billion in 2024. Other key segments include flexible packaging (like pouches, mailers, and bags) which made up ~21% of the U.S. market (~$41.5 billion in 2022), as well as rigid plastic containers, metal cans, and glass bottles. This underscores that while plastic packaging often grabs headlines, paper packaging is king in terms of sheer volume – and its dominance has been growing.

Pandemic E-Commerce Boom: Packaging Surge and Supply Strains

The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically accelerated e-commerce and changed consumer purchasing patterns – with direct consequences for packaging. As lockdowns hit, people shifted spending from in-person activities to buying physical products (furniture, appliances, electronics, etc.) for home. This led to an unprecedented boom in demand for shipping boxes and materials. At the height of the surge, packaging manufacturers were stretched to their limits – lead times for corrugated boxes spiked to 10 or more weeks in early 2022, whereas pre-pandemic lead times were about a week.

This period saw record-breaking parcel shipping volumes. According to Pitney Bowes' Parcel Shipping Index, global parcel volume reached about 159 billion parcels in 2021. This was an all-time high, reflecting the e-commerce explosion. For comparison, global parcel volume was just 54 billion in 2014. Major carriers like UPS, FedEx, Amazon Logistics, and postal services handled unprecedented package loads during 2020–2021.

E-commerce has also changed what kind of packaging is used. Companies innovated “ship-to-home” packaging designed for transit rather than retail displays. One noticeable shift was from traditional corrugated boxes to flexible mailers (padded envelopes or poly bags) for many online orders. Other essential packaging formats like rigid mailers, padded envelopes, and shipping tubes have also seen rising demand in e-commerce, especially for posters, documents, and delicate rolled goods.

Another pandemic-driven trend was the spike in takeout and food delivery packaging. Restaurants and cloud kitchens ramped up disposable packaging for meals, which had a ripple effect on paper packaging demand. In 2020 and 2021, even large corrugated boxes became scarce, and the cost of international shipping containers surged from $1,700 to over $6,000.

Paper Packaging Takes Over: Conversions and Capacity Shifts

One underreported story is how the paper industry transformed to meet packaging demand. As digitalization reduced the need for printing and office paper, many paper mills in the US and Europe converted their machines to produce packaging grades. According to AF&PA’s 2024 Capacity Report, containerboard now accounts for over half of U.S. paper production capacity. In 2024, U.S. paper and paperboard production jumped 3.2% overall, led by packaging materials.

Meanwhile, printing & writing paper capacity keeps shrinking, now only 12% of industry capacity. In Europe, similar investment trends in board and recycled packaging reflect long-term demand.

Packaging Waste: Soaring Volumes and a Surprising Recent Dip

According to Eurostat, in 2021, the average EU resident generated 190.1 kg of packaging waste, the highest on record. However, by 2023, this dropped to 177.8 kg per capita, a 4.7% decrease. Total packaging waste in the EU stood at 79.7 million tonnes.

Plastic packaging waste fell too – down 8.7 kg per person in 2023 from 2022. Yet, paper and cardboard remained the biggest component at 40.4% of packaging waste (32.3 million tonnes). The EU aims to recycle 85% of paper/cardboard by 2030.

In the U.S., according to EPA data, packaging makes up ~28% of municipal solid waste (~82.2 million tons in 2018). Corrugated cardboard recycling is strong – around 92% recovery according to industry estimates.

Plastic packaging recycling remains weak – only 13.3% recycled on average. This disparity is one reason brands are moving toward paper solutions. Smarter packaging design now includes using shipping tubes for elongated products, which reduces wasted box space and improves protection during transit.

The Post-Pandemic Correction: Packaging as an Economic Indicator

Packaging demand mirrors broader economic shifts. After the boom, U.S. box shipments declined in late 2022 through 2023. According to International Paper and PCA investor reports, shipments fell around 5% year-over-year in Q2 2023. By Q3 2025, box shipments dropped 1.4% year-over-year. To adapt, companies idled capacity – U.S. containerboard capacity fell ~10% by late 2025.

Boxboard production faced oversupply after several plants launched at once. Analysts suggest it may take years to absorb this capacity.

According to Pitney Bowes, global parcel volume reached 161 billion in 2022, with continued growth projected. The U.S. alone delivered 21 billion packages in 2023, growing 3.4% into 2024.

Outlook: Sustained Growth with a Focus on Sustainability and Efficiency

The U.S. packaging market is forecast to reach $286 billion by 2033. Globally, the industry could approach $1.5–$1.7 trillion by the early 2030s. According to Precedence Research, key growth areas include e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and automation.

Packaging automation is on the rise – the global automation market is projected to hit $134.6 billion by 2032. Smart design, reuse models, and sustainable materials (especially paper) are central to the future. And for items like posters, blueprints, or fine art, using shipping tubes ensures materials are shipped securely and with minimal waste.

Packaging is the canary in the coal mine for the goods economy. Studying these trends offers a unique lens into consumption, logistics, and sustainability. The data tells a powerful story of growth, correction, and adaptation — one that businesses, regulators, and consumers alike should be watching closely.